Excel LADZ
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Excel LADZ: October 2024 Update
🕑 Added 2024-09-30 07:58:21 +0000 UTCG’day, lads! It’s been another great month for the community! In September, Excel LADZ hit 300,000 views and 4,400 subscribers on YouTube. Furthermore, there are 2,700 free & paid members signed up to the Patreon.
A large part of this growth has been driven by the release of the ‘Excel LADZ - 2024 NFL Model’ on YouTube. While a long video, it’s a very comprehensive tutorial on how to use team stats to calculate probabilities in a matchup. Its connection to the internet through Power Query also allows for quick and easy daily analysis, eliminating the need to manually copy and paste new data each day.
If you haven’t already, download the ‘Excel LADZ - 2024 NFL Model’ here: https://www.patreon.com/posts/excel-ladz-2024-111333965
Next YouTube Video: Excel Bet Tracker
Following the success of the NFL video, my next upload on YouTube will most likely be a tutorial on building a Bet Tracker in Excel. To make the Bet Tracker as useful as possible, I’d like the spreadsheet to:
Make entering bets (to track) as easy and smooth as possible.
Analyse the user’s performance across different bet types, sports, and time periods to identify trends, strengths and areas for improvement
Be visually appealing with clean, organised layouts and dynamic charts.
An inspiration for this video is the following tutorial: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z26zbiGJnd4
While I’ve explored the mathematical side of sports modelling for the last month, I’m hoping I can add some Excel-specific knowledge to the Patreon while building this project.
2024-25 NHL & NBA Model
Of course, I’m still very much focused on bringing the lads insight into the statistical side of sports modelling! In October, this will start with the creation of the 2024-25 versions of the NHL and NBA models.
At the start of each season, the models will remain the same, using the same formulas as the 2023-24 versions to calculate probabilities. However, to adapt to the new season, I’ll implement a trailing window of data. Early on, the models will incorporate data from last season, but as the season progresses, the team strength will gradually rely more on the current season’s data.
Thanks for reading, lads! Please leave any questions you might have below. If you haven’t already, I hope you’ll consider upgrading to a paid membership. More to come!
Comments
rrw rwrw
I understand. So basically, we can start using the NBA 24-25 model only after round one of the new season is complete.
Excel LADZ
Hello, Gonzalo! That's awesome 🔥 I'm planning on using a trailing 30-game window for each player's stats. For example, after 15 games of the 2024-25 season, 50% of the player's stats will consist of their 23-24 stats, and 50% of the 24-25 season 😃 After 30 games, the model will rely completely on the current season's stats.
Excel LADZ
Hello, mate! As soon as the season starts. I need to wait for the 'Per Game Player Stats' dataset to be uploaded to Basketball Reference's website. This is a crucial dataset for the model to work 👍
Goncalo Varela
Hello! Could you please tell before the nba season starts how many games will be using the previous season data and the formulas to incorporate them with the new season? Just asking cause i've built all your models from scratch based on your yt videos and would love to know! Appreciate all your work as these are probably the best sports betting prediction models i've seen!
rrw rwrw
Hello,When the 2024-25 versions of the NBA model will be released? Have you gathered some success rates for the previous NBA session model?
Excel LADZ
G'day, Nate! If a model can be improved, then I will definitely make some adjustments to it 👍 If you've noticed the MLB Player Lineup Model has been producing 'under' forecasts at an unusually high rate, then that may be an example of the model being "overfitted". Of course, the MLB Team model is always available to download where you can evaluate the team and their strength as a whole, versus a team's strength being the sum of each player's evaluated strength. I'll look into this, and for next season see if the model can be improved for the totals 😃
Nate Contreras
for each year are you making any mathematical adjustments to the models? or just changing the data sets they’re pulling from? for example i noticed that the mlb model tended to heavily favor unders in its predictions this year, so im wondering how an adjustment could be made to try and dial in accuracy
Chris Lymbouris
Keep up the good work mate 👍
