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ANALYSE Football Matches for Win %, Over/Under and Correct Score using EXCEL! | Tutorial

🕑 Added 2024-05-07 20:33:00 +0000 UTC

Comments

Excel LADZ

G'day, Will! I've just updated the post with the 2024-25 version that works 👍 This can also be seen in the most recent post on the Patreon 😃

Will spare

Will there be a new season update. i refreshed data and it doesn't like it

Excel LADZ

Hi mate, the correct score probabilities are found my multiplying the probability of Team A scoring x goal, and Team B scoring y goals, for a x - y scoreline. For example, say Team A have a 20% chance of scoring 1 goal in a match (as determined by the POISSON.DIST function). Team B may have a 5% chance of scoring 3 goals in the same match (using POISSON.DIST). The chance of a 3-1 Team B win is 5% * 20% = 0.01 = 1%. Therefore, 3 - 1 scoreline has a 1% chance of occurring. This equation assumes that Team A's goals in a match and Team B's goals in a match are independent; one does not influence the other. To work out the probability of Team A scoring 1 goal given they are expected to score 1.45 goals in a match (xG = 1.45), you can use the POISSON.DIST function. =POISSON.DIST(1, 1.45, FALSE) = 34.01% 👍

spoilbrat42

The correct score should have been provided accurately. Personally, I don't grasp the nuances of your correct scoring method.

Excel LADZ

Hi lad, yes it is 👍 I highly recommend taking advantage of the community there 🔥

Aylas

Is the discord server available only for patreons?

Iain Moran

Thanks lad, it's now working again. Yesterday, after I refreshed the data. Each team had "Vs" before their name (e.g. "Vs Liverpool"), so no data was returned. Today, it's back to normal, so I suspect a brief issue with fbref.com caused it.

Excel LADZ

Hi lad, thanks for letting me know. I tested both models and the data was working fine for me. If you're experiencing an error, do you mind sending me a screenshot through Discord? That way the error can be tracked down better 😉 Yes, the video tutorial would be good for everyone I reckon 👍 Obviously though I want to make sure there's no issues with the data 🔥

Iain Moran

The model has stopped working. I suspect thet the data site has made some changes. Maybe time to make a video showing how to add new leagues and teach us how to correct things when the data changes :)

Kerry Coleman

Model is having some issues...

ryy ryy

and/or team shots/freekicks/throwins

ryy ryy

could you do player shots/passing? that would be perfect !

Iain Moran

If you could make a video it would be awesome, lad. The five leagues on this sheet, all finish in a couple of weeks, so a step-by-step tutorial on how to add some new ones would be appreciated!

Victor Saul Parra Rodriguez

thanks, mister

Excel LADZ

Great question lads! It would involve bringing in a new Power Query for whatever league you wanted to add. For example, the MLS. Now, using a combination of formulas (depending on how the MLS stats were brought in with the Power Query), you would create the MLS Table/Standings like I've done in the "Data" worksheet. Then, name the worksheet "mis_table". Add 'MLS' to the competition range, then add "mls" to the competition_code range. This will enable you to reference the MLS Table. Then, all the formulas in the "Dashboard" worksheet should update from there 👍 Perhaps I should do a tutorial video on this 😃

Iain Moran

Yes, I would like to know this too.

Excel LADZ

Yes it has been properly fixed lad 😃

Victor Saul Parra Rodriguez

how can i add other ligues? for example mls,mexico,etc

Iain Moran

Has the BTTS calculation been created on this model?

Iain Moran

How can we change the leagues for ones that play through the summer?

Excel LADZ

Great question lad 🔥 I'll look into that and see if it's an easy feature to add into the model. I'll let everyone know in a post when this change has been made 💪

Excel LADZ

Hi lad, this file only updates throughout the 2023-24 season. However, once that is finished, I'll make a new sheet connecting the 2024-25 data that everyone can download 👍 I would love to have had the model keep updating season-to-season by itself, but the website for 2025,26,27... seasons haven't been created yet 🤷