Excel LADZ
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2023-24 Excel LADZ NBA Model
🕑 Added 2023-11-17 21:36:21 +0000 UTCG'day lads,
Attached below is the 2023-24 update of the Excel LADZ NBA Model. It has both the Normal file as well as the Legacy Version for those without access to functions such as XLOOKUP and SEQUENCE. Both files perform the same function.
All that was involved was updating the Power Query in the model. That is, changing the stats to the 2023-24 data from Basketball Reference (from the 2022-23 data). Also, an Overtime function has been added to the simulations, so that any one game can have a maximum of 3 overtimes (if needed).
Important Note: As of today, there has only been around 14 games played by each team. Because this model only considers player stats recorded from the current season (and not their career stats right now), the stats will be extremely volatile. This is because it's very easy for a player to have either a good/bad stretch of games that aren't going to be representative of their true strength. As a result lads, exercise a large degree of caution in interpreting the results of the model before around games 25 - 40. The sample size is just too small using only stats from the current season.
To update the data, go into the Data tab, then press the icon 'Refresh All'. This will refresh the Power Query and automatically update the stats imported from Basketball Reference ๐ฅ
The 'Sports Betting' worksheet captures the probability and the "intrinsic odds" of the Match, Handicap and Total Points markets. Let me know if you have any more suggestions for this lads ๐ช
Let me know if you have any questions/problems/suggestions lads, enjoy! More will be added to the model as well as this post very soon (i.e. written explanations, videos, etc) ๐
Comments
J
Ok awesome! Ill be waiting for it for sure!!!
Excel LADZ
Hello, lad! Yes, this model will be getting a 2024-25 update. Iโll post this in a couple of days. Unfortunately, you canโt โRefresh Allโ on this file for the new season as the website โBasketball Referenceโ creates a new dataset for each season. As a result, I need to add in the 24-25 stats before the model is able to update by itself ๐
J
Will we be getting a 2024-2025 update to this one? Or is this something where we could just hit the refresh all button like on the mlb and nfl models?
Armando Tijerina
I am also having the same issue with this workbook.
Excel LADZ
Hi lad, I just ran the numbers through the model and (after adjusting for player minutes - reducing injured players to 0 in Column B of the 'Player Working' worksheet), I've got the Magic, Pacers and Nuggets as favourites in their games. If you're not getting those teams, then you might be accidentally forgetting an element of the model. To update the data/stats on which the model is based on, make sure you go into the 'Data' tab and then select the 'Refresh All' icon. This will refresh the model's connection to the internet, and bring in the most up to date stats. Secondly, make sure you're adjusting Player Minutes in the 'Player Working' worksheet, within column B. A video on how to do this is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBqpxYZeSU4&t=7s The 'Result' worksheet will do the rest ๐ Let me know if you're experiencing anymore issues lad ๐
Bombard Gaming
just installed the model and its saying that all the underdogs for tomorrows games are 70%+ chance to win even after adjusting player minutes. what am i doing wrong?
Excel LADZ
Hi lad, this video should help: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBqpxYZeSU4&t=1s
Excel LADZ
Hi lad, check out this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBqpxYZeSU4&t=1s
sam JET
same here
Excel LADZ
Hi lad, I've just messaged you through Patreon ๐
ic1uc1
joined and downloaded the 2023-2024 Excel Lads NBA model to learn excel and see how it works but get data refresh error. Unable to open https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2024_per_game.html. Cannot download the information you requested.
Travis Nims
How do I change the players in the starting lineup for injuries and rest?
Robert Kahn
its working now. lets private about some data.
Robert Kahn
also iam using refresh on power query.
Robert Kahn
thank you for these great models. I have been looking for something like this . i also have some cool data I would like to run by you. For this simulation on nba do i need to do anything besides switch the teams in the home and away box? The teams scores and percent do not seem to change. Thanks.
Tk and TK
thank you for that !
Excel LADZ
Hi lad, thanks for letting me know ๐ This error is caused by Adebayo and Butler having the same amount of MP. As a result, their rank is both 2 (and the number 3 is missed). This is why Jimmy Butler shows up on the bench while starting. I'm planning to either release a quick video on how to fix this lad (by changing MP in the Player Working worksheet) or I'll update the model so that the rank's will not repeat.
Tk and TK
hey I noticed that anytime I simulate the heat jimmy butler is showing up twice in the lineup with different points
Excel LADZ
Hey lad, I will definitely make a model for college basketball. However it may not look like this one in terms of using the Binomial Distribution to simulate points. Rather, it might be an ELO Model (which my March Madness model will definitely use). But by all means, if. The stats for college basketball are as thorough as the ones collected from the NBA, then the same model can absolutely be built ๐
Swq Qwerty
This is his reply from above"Hi lad, thank you for bringing that to my attention. I checked it out, and the error is caused by Ron Harper Jr having xFGA+FTA of 0, and also having no points scored this season. To fix this, just write in cell E25 the number 2 (or any number for that fact - he won't score any points in the simulations), and then the calculations will be all fixed. Remember to replace that with the formula when simulating for another team lad ๐ Hopefully that works alright."
Cal Conway
I am having a problem with the model when it comes to adding in my own projections. I will get a DIV symbol a lot and games will not predict. If anyone could help out that would be great!
Swq Qwerty
Howdy lads, Since you have this beautiful model working for NbA would it be possible to make one for college basketball, Thank you
Maksims Hromcovs
Big thanks, problem solved ๐
Excel LADZ
Hi lad, thank you for bringing that to my attention. I checked it out, and the error is caused by Ron Harper Jr having xFGA+FTA of 0, and also having no points scored this season. To fix this, just write in cell E25 the number 2 (or any number for that fact - he won't score any points in the simulations), and then the calculations will be all fixed. Remember to replace that with the formula when simulating for another team lad ๐ Hopefully that works alright.
Maksims Hromcovs
Thanks for the model, perfect job !!! Only one thing: I have a mistake in model when in prediction bar I am choosing Toronto Raptors. All others teams are working corectly.
