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Excel LADZ - Weekly Update: Monday 10 July
🕑 Added 2023-07-10 11:06:11 +0000 UTCG’day lads, I hope you enjoyed the MLB Model released onto Excel LADZ. The model is inherently basic, and only involves two core steps:
- Calculating Expected Runs
- Distributing Expected Runs based off of an appropriate Probability Distribution
This second step may be complicated to grasp for some. Why not use a regular probability distribution; e.g. the Poisson or Binomial Distribution?
Well, unlike many other sports where scoring occurs primarily at a single target, such as a goal or basket, baseball involves players progressing through a series of bases to score runs. This makes it more difficult to record a score in a single innings. However, when a team does score, they are more likely (compared to the Poisson Distribution) to record a high number of runs. Consider the chart below:
The above example was for a team expected to score 4.59 runs in a match. It is evident the regular Poisson Distribution drastically underestimates the probability of scoring a low (0) and a high (3+) number of runs in a match, compared to the more accurate probabilities presented by the specialised formula.
Ultimately, when building any model is it critically important to choose an appropriate distribution. Otherwise, the model loses its accuracy.
Reminder: For the MLB Model to update with new stats each day, you must ‘Refresh All’. This icon is within the ‘Data’ tab of Excel, and must be clicked in order for the Power Query to refresh its connection to the internet.
Short Term Goals
- NBA In-Season Tournament
- The Excel LADZ NBA In-Season Tournament Model will hopefully be released by Wednesday, 12 July.
- The video explanation on YouTube may be released 3-5 days after its release.
Medium Term Goals
- Further “beginner” sports models on a range of sports including (but not limited to):
- NFL
- NHL
- AFL (Australian Football League)
- NRL (National Rugby League)
If you have any questions/suggestions on video ideas, please put them in the comments lads! You can either comment on this post, or ask on the Excel LADZ Discord Server.
Thanks,
Excel LADZ.
Comments
Samuel Waring
Appreciate the update lad.
