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Science News July 31

🕑 Added 2023-07-31 17:05:00 +0000 UTC
Science News July 31

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A few quick comments about the AMOC, after I read yesterday the Ditlevson paper and also some positive and negative comments by expert reviewers: a) saying the AMOC is not the Gulf Stream is not very helpful. One reviewer (correctly in my view) agreed that it is not the Gulf Stream (because that is strictly only the northwards flow between Florida and Cuba) but maintained one can say the AMOC equals the "Gulf Stream system". b) more importantly it would be helpful if people (including the Ditlevsons) said what they do mean by the AMOC in the context of its collapse. Strictly speaking the AMOC needs to be defined relative to a parallel of latitude (eg 26 N per the RAPID measurements). And it can be quantified in terms of gross water flow (cubic metres per second - "cumecs" - north on the surface and south at depth) or net heat flow (W resulting from the temperature differential of the two flows). The Ditlevsons are clearly referring to cumecs on one of their graphs (or rather megacumecs which are also called Sverdrups) but did not stay with a standard parallel of longitude because the thing that is shown as collapsing appears to be North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation. c) so could the NADW formation collapse? Their analysis of early warning signs in their chosen proxy parameter seems convincing (and I disagree with reviewers who faulted them for subtracting twice the GMST anomaly rather than once - polar amplification is a thing, after all). So yes, it is something to take very seriously. d) however does it mean that the AMOC across 26 N will collapse, measured either in cumecs or watts? What if the region of downwelling just migrates southwards? The Ditlevsons make the connection with D-O events in the last ice age, but these shifted heat south for a period rather than shutting down the global conveyor system. So Northern Europe may cool down but global warming will continue and Antarctic melting will accelerate? In summary, I think I understand what they are saying and absolutely agree with the seriousness of changes to the stability of the AMOC. However the term "AMOC collapse" needs better definition. If they mean that NADW formation around 50 N will substantially stop, there should be a better term for it and they should use it. Logical follow-on questions are then clearer, eg will NADW formation shift to around 40 N or will it substantially stop north of 26 N? Where will the heat go, eg will it go largely south to Antarctica, warming the Antarctic Deep Water and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current? Or will it feed the Atlantic superstorms that James Hansen warns of? While these questions may not be readily answerable, I think it would be better to be able to focus on such questions rather than be left wondering what is meant by "AMOC collapse".

I am not holding any PhD in physics, but this "of course" sounds weird to me. I don't get what is the issue to predict the initial state from the current state and the time evolution: "The present state is a consequence of the initial state, and the time evolution of course does not predict the initial state."


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