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Bitcoin on Optimized Trend
The monthly BTC chart on Optimized Trend has called every bear market perfectly since inception. I won’t sugarcoat it — it has just turned down for the first time since December 1st, 2021. If that signal holds, it suggests we never truly entered a real bull market this cycle; it simply lasted a bit longer than usual.My odds we are now in a Bitcoin Bear Market are now 70% give this indicator... last week it was 30% - and I am very happy to be wrong on this one. Back in 2023, my bull target was $119K, and while price got there, I didn’t se...
Free Nuclear Reactor in the Sky
Yeah, I know it's controversial, but I also watch with the Chinese are doing. Unfortunately, the US government is very against solar probably due to oil and gas special interests.Solar power is logical to me because it's free energy from the sun—no fuel costs, no radioactive waste like nuclear, and no big pollution disasters like fossil fuels. It's like a safe, distant reactor in the sky. The country with the most energy wins.... it is that simple. That will probably be China unless the West gets its act together.
VIDEO - Cyberbulls: Spatial AI
Live at 2pm Pacific: https://youtube.com/live/V-Y0O717aWg
Gap Filled
Gaps in stock charts don't always fill—it's a popular trading adage, but data shows they fill around 80% of the time, especially common gaps in ranging or low-volume markets. They occur when a stock's price jumps sharply between one trading session's close and the next open, often due to after-hours news, earnings reports, or shifts in market sentiment, leaving a "void" on the chart with no trades in between. This void acts like a magnet for price action!Now the Good NewsOnce filled, the prior gap level can act as supp...
Reason for Market Bloodbath - yup the FED
I jumped the gun a touch on TSLA - today... it is now lower. It’s remarkable. The Fed has essentially received no new data for 45 days, yet now believes there’s a 50% chance they won’t cut rates in December—down from the 67% probability priced in just days ago. That kind of sudden shift is what’s rattling markets. Investors hate surprises, and the Fed’s messaging right now feels disjointed and inconsistent Uncertainty in the U.S. economy has eased considerably.The U.S. economy shows cautious optimism. NO 7 INDUSTRIES are in RECESSIO...
EXCLUSIVE VIDEO: Backtest: Bar Open or Bar Closed?
Jacob dives into the ATR backtest: should the bar be open or closed? https://youtu.be/d4DueND9yJ0Core Idea:Always use bar close for signals and backtesting because it reflects the only moment you can reliably act after the candle finishes and avoids constant fakeouts that happen intrabar.📌 Bar Open vs Bar Close (Super Tight Summary)Bar OpenUnrealistic: you cannot reliably buy at the exact open of a new bar unless you are watching the charts like a hawk across different timeframes. Bar CloseCandle is finished → signal is confirmed + stable....
Imagine a time when BTC could kickstart an economy?
Bitcoin can serve as a tool to kickstart an economy by enabling financial inclusion, reducing transaction costs for remittances, attracting foreign investment, and providing a hedge against inflation or currency instability. Would be great to see the UK doing this and leading the way for the EU UK Economy stalling out pretty fast right now.
Guy that built Tesla FSD is blown away by it!
Former Director of AI at Tesla Andrej Karpathy picked up his new Model X and reviews Tesla V13.2.9 with HW4Elon says wait till he tries V14“Basically... I'm amazed - it drives really, really well, smooth, confident, noticeably better than what I'm used to on HW3 (my previous car) and eons ahead of the version I remember driving up highway 280 on my first day at Tesla ~9 years ago, where I had to intervene every time the road mildly curved or sloped. (note this is v13, my car hasn't been offered the latest v14 yet)On the highway, I...
Czech National Bank aka Central Bank buys BTC
Today Czech National Bank (CNB) Governor Aleš Michl announced the creation of a $1 million test portfolio that includes Bitcoin, marking the first time a central bank has purchased Bitcoin for its balance sheet. This pilot program tests the processes for buying, holding, and managing digital assets like Bitcoin, which Michl described as a way to evaluate its "potential role in diversifying our reserves" from a "decentralised" perspective—aligning closely with the post's phrasing of Bitcoin as a "decentralized alternat...
IA Trade Alert
I grabbed a little TSLA today at the magical $411 mark - the same level I entered before and was waiting to hit again... Buy signal shadowed again and we have bounced off $411 thrice now. I bought the Jan 2028 calls and sold the Jan 2028 Puts at $400 strike for a net debit of $45My breakeven on the trade is $445 a mere 800 days from now. It may not be the bottom - but it is a very small position compared to my usual buys
Burry Crashed and Burned - Scion is done!
Not long ago, I made a post on how Burry was insane to short AI - in particular, NVDA - PLTR, PLTR you could argue is frothy. Anyhow as it turns out - putting Burry’s recent moves together — his liquidation letter, his posts about hyperscalers losing value, and his Big Short meme — and he’s sending one message:He is a PermaBear - only knows pessimism. And yeah... bears are right 20% of the time and they make markets. But all permabears eventually go broke. He was a smart fellow but failed to understand the power of real AI AGI like Te...
Crypto Perspective
and yeah I realize the price sucks... been in markets now since 1990 and never saw so much mispricing as I have with Crypto. Anyhoooo Toly says in this interview "Solana processes in a single month the same number of transactions Ethereum has handled over its entire history."
Ultra Processed Trash Takes a Dump - $BYND down 99.5%
Beyond Meat is basically ultra-processed junk dressed up as “healthy.” Vegans loved it. However if you took 1 min to research it youy would find out it is trash stuffed with refined oils, protein isolates, starches, methylcellulose, maltodextrin, “natural flavors,” and other additives you’d never consume at home. Some ingredients even raise extra eyebrows—like rice-based proteins that can carry arsenic. Nutritionally, it’s worse than many processed meats: high sodium, highly engineered, and nowhere near the clean “plant-based...
Tesla's moat is "wide and deep" for scaling embodied AI globally
Will cover this and more on Cyberbulls tomorrow at 2pm PTNobody else is even thinking about this.... and Tesla has been for the last decade. Tesla's sentient "Baby AGI" isn't a chatty oracle—it's an agent that embodies intelligence. Perceiving 3D worlds, predicting physics (e.g., a tyres skid on wet asphalt), navigating/manipulating objects, and reasoning through interaction (trial-and-error learning in real time). Tesla's FSD is already there—your car "understands" intent, momentum, and seasons without maps....
US Govt Opened
A lesson in negotiating tactics. I rem over a qtr of a century ago we had a class at Wharton around Negotiations.... I rem it to this day - and it is pretty freaking simple - Whoever controls the scope defines what the negotiation is about and the assumptions both sides accept as reality. Done. A total nonsense experiment. Anyhoooo.... Even though the U.S. government was shut down for 43 days, it still borrowed 2/3rds of a Trillion dollars which works out to about $5 billion every day. In other words, government spending never really stops, eve...
Tesla Cyberbulls tomorrow - Taking Q's
Fun items like - ok we got the comp plan and Elon plans to ramp 60% full war mode - what does this mean for the stock? Spatial AI.... the new frontier Convergence w SpaceX and xAI Quick fire Qs for Lutz and MerzShort snappy Q's are best.
New AJ Tesla Price Target vs Mine
I know Jo B was on the channel last week, saying Tesla could easily hit $2,000 next year. Personally, I think that’s a bit optimistic. I’m more in the $750–$1,000 range, and it was reassuring to see AJ land in a similar zone.AJ’s updated Tesla price targets are $530–$590 for next year, and $1,050–$1,170 over the next two years.Note mine is based on FCF and very conservative PE ratios so my numbers are lower. My PTs below.
VIDEO - Bitcoin Big Reset
Live at 1:10pm Pacific: https://youtube.com/live/6QNznmU5w0w
Brutal Time for Proxies
Proxies have taken a hit — for the first time this bull run, MSTR is trading below its Bitcoin holdings, with the NAV premium flipping to a 1% discount.You could technically argue that the arbitrage might now swing the other way — but not if a bear market is setting in.We really need the Govt to reopen ASAP... i know for a fact people are being forced to sell here to make money for downpayments on homes etc.
Got an Antique Doc you cannot read?
Looks like Google is A/B testing a new model in AI Studio. The text above is a nightmare 18th-century handwritten document—bad spelling, grammar, and all. Most models fail hard on it. This new one? Nearly perfect. Nothing else even comes close.I can think of a number of applications including my own handwriting :D h.t Sanjay
Investor enthusiasm for CHIPS and TECH is off the charts.
The Semiconductor ETF ($SMH) saw record inflows of $1.3 billion last week, surpassing its previous high of $1.2 billion from Q1 2022.That’s more than twice the weekly average for 2025 so far.Meanwhile, the 3x leveraged Nasdaq 100 ETF ($TQQQ) also drew massive demand, with $1.2 billion in new inflows.Altogether, U.S.-listed ETFs added $43.0 billion during the week ending Friday, bringing year-to-date inflows to an all-time high of $1.14 trillion.
The Socialist Experiment
New York City’s new socialist tax experiment is set to end badly. Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s plan to fund free services by heavily taxing the rich will likely drive out the very people who pay most of the city’s taxes. Also, the corporations. And no net new companies will head to NYC. History shows this pattern: when taxes get too high, wealth and talent leave—just like they did in Britain, Sweden, and more recently, California.I've seen this firsthand in California, where the state's progressive tax system, with top rates over 13%...
IA9: AMD
This stock was included in my IA9, and since the summer of 2025, I’ve been waiting for a dip… but that never came. It just got upgraded with a new $300 price target.A friend of mine has held a small bag of AMD since 2015 — and he’s now a multi millionaire. The stock is up over 11,000% in ten years, a classic example of how sometimes the best move is simply to sit on your hands and wait.With AMD’s latest upgrade to $300, it shows no sign of slowing down.This excerpt is from my summer deck.
ATR Buy Signal on the Daily
Hey team, I don’t want to jinx it, but the ATR model just triggered a buy signal on the daily for Bitcoin. Historically, it’s been accurate about 86% of the time — fingers crossed this one plays out too!
Follow on Q - Retire on $200K a year spend
Even spending $200K a year starting now you still cannot outrun the bag
X Post: No job but $2.2M in TSLA
This was inspired by a post I randomly saw on Twitter So I ran some numbers on our new retirement model... PS our beta testers are on this tomorrow :DRetire on MODEL coming to Patreon real soonSome fun charts from the model and I only assumed a conservative 35% CAGR when in reality we are heading to 50 to 70% CAGR - and spending $100K a year indexed at 4%HI RES IMAGES ABOVEEven spending heavily you cannot outspend your bags Spending $100K a year for 30 years.... indexed at 4%
Wedding Cost is not worth it
Pro Tip for Young Couples: Instead of blowing one-fifth of your lifetime earnings on a lavish wedding—like many in India do and in USA many weddings are north of $100K (a retire on bag of 300 TSLA shares) — channel that cash into smarter investments with real returns, such as buying a house, funding your kids' education, or building a solid investment portfolio. The ROI on a fancy wedding? Absolutely disastrous—it's a one-day party that evaporates faster than champagne bubbles.Opt for a simple, heartfelt celebration in a public pa...
Some Good ETF news
Bitcoin hauls in $300M before BlackRock even takes the field. Happy to see this reversal. Solana: a modest $9M.Ethereum? Dumps $90M before BlackRock’s whistle blows.
Rule du Jour: Rule #89 - Your portfolio is a Mirror of your Mind
Rule #89 - Your portfolio is a Mirror of your MindUpgrade your mind relentlessly—always read, always learn, and always anticipate the next big thing. Prepare for it, rotate your portfolio into that emerging asset class, and once it's mainstream, gear up for the one after. I also call this #ABL Always Be Learning.... do not let a day pass without learning something new. A sharp, adaptive mind is your greatest edge in the markets. Read more than you react.A few quick tips that I always keep in mind, excuse the pun:Mature the mind firstMake...
VIDEO - OCTA: Hold the Line
Live at 1:30pm Pacific: https://youtube.com/live/MXGHAZUJabU
